Has Monza Made Mercedes Betting Favourites Again?

The most puzzling question in the world of Formula 1 right now leads again to a familiar venue: the Monza circuit with its high-speed straights and fast, flowing corners. For a team like Mercedes, which is drowning in a results crisis, returning to Italy always carries a special meaning. The wave of media discussion over the past week revolves around a question posed by the title of the analysis piece from the official F1 website: "Has Monza made Mercedes betting favourites again?" – that is, whether the characteristics of this track are enough to push Mercedes back into the position of being the highest-rated team by the bookmakers. Looking at history, the question is not entirely unreasonable. During the early phase of the hybrid engine era (2026-2026), Mercedes was almost a dominant force at Monza. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg brought five consecutive victories for the German team from 2026 to 2026. That period saw the Mercedes power unit entirely superior in terms of output – the most important weapon on the longest circuit in the calendar, where nearly 80% of a lap is taken at full throttle. But Mercedes' shadow at Monza in recent years is clearly dimmer: since the 2026 win, they have taken only one podium in 2026 and have regularly been beaten by rivals such as Red Bull, Ferrari, and even McLaren. However, the return of several recent upgrades, combined with the nature of the high-speed track, is making analysts look at Mercedes with a different view. Monza does not impose strict demands on downforce or complex cornering like technology-intensive circuits such as Hungaroring or Monaco. Here, organizers often force teams to choose a low-downforce wing configuration of the year. This reduces the differences among cars with different aerodynamic philosophies and increases the importance of fundamental factors such as engine power, aerodynamic efficiency at low angles of attack, and tire management. Mercedes has long been known for its "low-drag" aerodynamic philosophy – optimized for maximum speed. The W-spec (the latest code name of the Mercedes car) is designed with the idea of low drag coefficient even when running with a high load. If the team led by Toto Wolff selects the appropriate wing, Monza could be where they rediscover a lost rhythm. But engineering is only half the story; the other half lies in strategic decisions during the main race and the driver's ability in high-speed braking zones like the Variante della Roggia or Ascari. In addition to engineering, Mercedes' emergence as a top-tier contender in the eyes of bookmakers also reflects a shift in the balance of power in the middle of the standings. This year's championship race has seen front-runners like Red Bull and Ferrari seemingly devote more resources to late-season development, while Mercedes – no longer having high ambitions for the title race – is allowed more freedom to experiment. This implicitly creates a relative advantage for teams focusing on specific races. Monza becomes a meeting point where they can shine without worrying about the pressure of points. However, becoming the top pick of the bookmakers at Monza does not mean Mercedes has a superior overall strategy. In fact, the German team still has an inherent weakness in managing contracts with drivers and partners. Their return to the top could merely be a temporary phenomenon when the track exploits the blind spot of an outdated aerodynamic solution. Rivals like McLaren have proven in Austria and Mexico that they can fully adapt to various types of circuit characteristics. Therefore, saying Monza "makes" Mercedes return is an overstatement – unless the leadership team at Brackley proves sustained consistency in several consecutive races. When discussing why bookmakers repeatedly place Mercedes at the top position, observers cannot help recalling the maxim of seasoned analysts: "On the field there are 22 players, but the real match takes place between two brains." In football, formations can change, but in F1, the brain lies in the data operations and the decision-making on pit wall regarding tire changes or track evolution. Winning at Monza often comes not from the fastest car but from who makes the smartest decision when the safety car appears or when a few rain drops start falling. A noteworthy perspective – and a blind spot for the crowd – is that Mercedes is carrying a heavy cost for its internal restructuring process. While top teams have stabilized in terms of personnel and developmental philosophy, Mercedes' crew has had to handle a series of high-profile departures in recent years. The lack of personnel stability causes development plans during the season to stall. Hence, if they have a sudden good performance at Monza, that could be the result of "transient" operational factors rather than a long-term affirmation of the entire system. Data from many years suggest that at Monza, engine performance determines more than 50% of lap time. With each team having to choose between low downforce and stability under braking, Mercedes could be more favorable here than they are at tracks like Barcelona or Silverstone. But it must be said that winning a Formula 1 race today is no longer a one-man show. The introduction of DRS and tire management capabilities turn overtaking moves into a tactical pursuit game. This year, the championship race is in its final sprint phase and Monza is seen as a place where the leaders will protect their achievements. Bookmakers commonly do not easily hand over the top-favorite position to a team that is fourth or fifth in the Constructors' table. They make very careful analyses of momentum, especially when other teams might not care about results anymore but are targeting next season. This inadvertently elevates Mercedes into a "favorable" position in the eyes of the betting market. It should also be noted that the racing history at Monza is full of surprises. In 2026, Pierre Gasly's AlphaTauri defeated both Mercedes to take a landmark victory. In 2026, McLaren's win came from fully exploiting the performance imbalance of the top teams. Thus, whether a team is considered the most likely candidate before a race weekend often does not say much about the final outcome. On the Monza stage, every prediction can be overturned by a brake issue, a collision, or an unexpected rain shower. If we make a precise assessment, the question raised by the original article – whether Monza makes Mercedes return to the candidacy position – is perhaps more an open question than a statement. It taps into the psychological vulnerability of Mercedes fans who yearn for a return to glory. But everything on the circuit must be proven by data and by the reliability of engineers after stepping onto the podium. From the perspective of a spectator who has witnessed many ups and downs of major racing teams, I think the most interesting thing about this season is not whether a team wins at Monza, but whether a team that has gone through so many changes like Mercedes can truly rebuild the "operating system" that allows championships to come naturally. If they merely recover from a few favorable circuits, that is encouraging, but it is not yet anything that makes a difference in the new era of the sport. Formula 1 is not a discipline of favoritism. Monza might be opening a window of opportunity for Mercedes, but the chance is probably only the tip of the iceberg. Those who bet on Mercedes' return need to be wary of the illusion of a resurgent team. Look at how teams manage tyres, tyre degradation, and split-second decisions; that is what truly defines the real stance at Monza. For its part, Mercedes has made strides, but the path to the title is still a distant one without a systematic reinforcement.